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How big is Donald Trump’s mandate?

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Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 presidential election is significant, but the size of his mandate is a matter of debate. He received more votes than any other candidate, but did not receive an outright majority of the popular vote. The electoral college system played a crucial role in his victory, amplifying relatively slender victories in swing states.

The Significance of the Electoral College System

The US electoral college system amplifies relatively slender victories in swing states, which can be amplified into what looks like a much more resounding triumph.

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Three Ways to Look at His Win

  1. Most Voters Picked Someone Other Than Trump: Despite winning the presidency, Trump did not receive an outright majority of the popular vote. He won 76.9 million votes, but this was below 50% in some parts of the US.

  2. Trump’s Party Has a Slender Majority in Congress: The Republicans have won both chambers of Congress, but their majority is relatively small.

  3. The Electoral College System Amplifies Victories in Swing States: Trump won all seven closely watched swing states, which gave him a decisive advantage overall.

Comparing Trump’s Win to Previous Elections

Trump’s win can be seen as an improvement on his last victory in 2016, when he lost the popular vote but won the presidency. However, it is also worth noting that Biden received more than 81 million votes in 2020, a record haul.

The Importance of the Popular Vote

Trump’s win of the popular vote is significant, as no Republican has managed this feat since 2004. However, he did not receive an outright majority of the votes cast.

The Significance of the Electoral College System

The electoral college system played a significant role in Trump’s win, amplifying relatively slender victories in swing states. This system gives disproportionate weight to the votes of certain states, which can be decisive in determining the outcome of the election.

Donald Trump has said his election victory handed him an “unprecedented and powerful” mandate to govern. However, the size of his mandate is a matter of debate. While he received more votes than any other candidate, he did not receive an outright majority of the popular vote.

Republican President-elect Donald Trump Has Said His Election Victory Handed Him an “Unprecedented and Powerful” Mandate to Govern

He beat Democratic rival Kamala Harris in all seven closely watched swing states, giving him a decisive advantage overall. Trump’s party has also won both chambers of Congress, giving the returning president considerable power to enact his agenda.

He Has Broadened His Appeal Across Nearly All Groups of Voters Since His 2020 Defeat

And in doing so he pulled off a comeback unmatched by any previously defeated president in modern history. However, the data suggests it was a much closer contest than he and his allies are suggesting.

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