Australia is bracing for severe thunderstorms and above-average rain after the hottest spring on record. The Bureau Of Meteorology predicts all regions apart from western Tasmania will see above-median rain in December, with a 70% risk in many parts of WA, the northern tropics, and eastern inland. Australians are advised to prepare for severe weather conditions.
The Thundery Finish to Spring
The thundery finish to spring is not just random weather variability, but a likely indication of the probable prevailing weather patterns through December. This outlook for above-average rain is thanks to numerous climate drivers swinging to a wet phase, including a positive SAM, a negative IOD, near-record high global sea temperatures, and a pulse of the MJO.
Severe Thunderstorms Likely
Severe thunderstorms are also likely, particularly from Tuesday onwards once the low begins forming, and the main threat appears to be flash-flooding due to the abundant atmospheric moisture streaming in from the tropics.
Above-Median Rain Expected
The latest monthly forecast from the Bureau Of Meteorology shows all regions of Australia apart from western Tasmania are likely to see above-median rain next month, including a greater than 70 per cent risk in many parts of WA, the northern tropics, and eastern inland.
Regional Weather
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South-east Australia is expected to experience severe thunderstorms, with maximum temperatures on Friday reaching up to 37C in Melbourne.
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Rain and cooler southerlies will start to filter through SA on Saturday, but an even hotter day is predicted for Victoria and Tasmania as the northerly winds freshen.
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Melbourne is forecast to reach around 37C on Saturday, with extreme fire danger levels expected in north-west Victoria.
Preparation
It is essential for Australians to be prepared for severe weather conditions and take necessary precautions. Staying informed about weather updates and having accurate information from reliable sources can help make informed decisions during such situations.
Heatwave Lingers Across NSW
For South Australia and Victoria, the thundery change will bring cool relief this weekend; however, the heatwave is set to linger across New South Wales into the middle of next week. Sydney’s west is likely to reach the mid-to-high 30s until at least Wednesday, potentially even recording four consecutive days above 35C for the first time in spring in 15 years.
Nationwide Soaking Expected
Ultimately, the rainband will win the battle, intensifying into a major thunderstorm outbreak through the week from the Top End, through the interior to southern Victoria, eventually spreading east to Queensland and NSW. This broad spread of storms along with the slow-moving nature of the system will result in up to 100mm of rain across multiple states by next weekend, heralding a wet and stormy finish to 2024.
Heatwave Warning in Force
A low-intensity heatwave warning is in force for south-east NSW where temperatures will climb about 10 degrees above average for up to four days. A low-intensity to severe heatwave is forecast to continue into early next week across south-east and central-east NSW.
Cooler Weather Expected Eventually
Modelling is currently showing a wide variety of scenarios of when cooler weather will arrive in eastern NSW, with a range from Thursday to even as far out as next Sunday.
