Unpacking the Key Factors in Ireland

Irish General Election 2024

Overview

The Irish general election took place on November 30, 2024. The voting system used is proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV) method.

Voting Process

• Voters rank candidates in their constituency in order of preference.

• Candidates must reach a certain number of votes to be elected.

• Counting takes place in multiple rounds.

• Each ballot is initially credited to the first choice, and any remaining ballots are transferred to subsequent preferences until all seats are filled.

Election Results

Initial Exit Polls

The initial exit poll suggested a narrow lead for Sinn Féin over Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. However, it was a tight contest between the three major parties.

Voting System Delays Counting

Due to the voting system, counting can sometimes last multiple days, and forming a government can take even longer. It took four months after the 2020 general election for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party to reach a deal to form a government.

Coalition Negotiations

Sinn Féin’s Role

Sinn Féin has polled well so far but less clear is how it will use that support to enter government. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have ruled out sharing power with Sinn Féin, leaving McDonald contemplating other options including the possibility of a minority government with other left-leaning parties and some independent TDs.

Housing as a Major Issue

Housing was the main issue for voters, according to a Sky News report. Voters cited housing shortages and high prices as major concerns.

Coalition Formation Timeline

• The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is on December 18.

• It’s unlikely coalition negotiations will have finished by then.

• A government will be officially formed when the Dáil passes a vote to install a new Taoiseach (Irish prime minister), but this isn’t expected to take place before 2025.

Key Parties Involved

Sinn Féin

Sinn Féin has made big gains in recent years due to its promises on housing. The party has a lot of support among younger voters and has confirmed its place at the top with the two traditional parties.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil

• Exit Poll Results: The RTÉ exit poll suggests a tight three-way race, with Sinn Féin slightly ahead of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in first preference votes.

• Vote Counting Process: The single transferable vote system will be used to count the ballots, which involves voters ranking candidates in their constituency in order of preference. Candidates must reach a certain number of votes to be elected, with counting taking place in multiple rounds.

• Coalition Negotiations: The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is scheduled for December 18, but it is unlikely that coalition negotiations will have finished by then. A government will be officially formed when the Dáil passes a vote to install a new Taoiseach (Irish prime minister), which may not happen before 2025.

• Key Issues: Housing and the high cost of living were identified as the top two issues for voters, with housing being a major concern for many families.

• Party Positions: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have ruled out sharing power with Sinn Féin, leaving Mary Lou McDonald to consider other options, including forming a minority government with left-leaning parties and independent TDs.

Key Figures

Mary Lou McDonald

Sinn Féin leader who was elected in the Dublin Central constituency.

Simon Harris

Fine Gael leader who has said it is “too close to call” how many seats his party will win.

Micheál Martin

Fianna Fáil leader who has also been elected in Wicklow.

Timeline

• November 30: Vote counting begins across the Republic of Ireland.

• December 18: First meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament).

• 2025: Expected timeframe for coalition negotiations to be completed and a government to be formed.