Developing adaptive forecasting strategies requires embracing uncertainty and adopting a mindset that anticipates and plans ahead. By thinking slowly about the future, visualizing possible outcomes, and using numbers to describe uncertainty, individuals can improve their prediction skills and be better prepared for unexpected events.
Embracing Uncertainty: A Mindset for Predicting the Future
The Importance of Uncertainty in Prediction Skills
In today’s uncertain world, predicting the future is both an art and a science. It requires rigor and luck, but with a specific mindset, one can anticipate and plan ahead.
Don’t Make Predictions
The first lesson in making predictions is not to make predictions at all. Instead of guessing what will happen, it’s essential to embrace uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity.
Thinking Fast and Slow About Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a “conscious awareness of ignorance.” It’s a personal relationship with anything we don’t know. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman identified two broad ways of thinking: using our fast, unconscious, gut reactions or going slowly and deliberately through a problem.
Think Fast for Everyday Decisions
For everyday decisions like driving or choosing a film to watch, it’s fine to think fast about the future. However, for big decisions, it’s better to take our time.
Conjuring Up Possible Futures
The first step in thinking slowly about the future is to visualize the ways things could play out. Organizations can create scenarios reflecting optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, using a “red team” to deliberately think of what could go wrong.
Adopting a Red-Team Mindset
Individually, one can adopt a “red-team mindset,” consciously critiquing our standard view, whether we tend to look on the bright side or expect the worst.
The Role of Luck in Prediction Skills
Being Prepared to Be Surprised
Cromwell’s Rule means thinking like a fox and having the humility to think it possible you may be mistaken. This allows for rapid adaptation to new information.
Acknowledging the Unknown
Donald Rumsfeld described the “known knowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns.” When we acknowledge this possibility, it’s known as “deep uncertainty,” where we can’t even list the possible futures.
The Problem With Vague Verbiage About Uncertainty
Vague verbiage about uncertainty is easily misinterpreted. It’s essential to use numbers to describe uncertainty, such as aligning words with rough numbers, like in intelligence agencies and climate science.
Putting Numbers on Our Ignorance
Events like the Bay of Pigs disaster have encouraged intelligence agencies to align words with rough numbers. As individuals, we can try to rank possible futures in terms of their likelihood and give them some rough magnitudes.
What Makes a Good Forecaster?
A good forecaster is someone who can think slowly about the future, visualize possible outcomes, and use numbers to describe uncertainty. They also have the humility to think it possible they may be mistaken.
We live in an age of uncertainty, where global threats and personal insecurities are on the rise. However, instead of trying to predict the future, we should focus on developing a mindset that anticipates and plans ahead.
Meaning, don’t just make a guess as to what will happen. Instead, embrace uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity.
- For big decisions, take your time and go slow.
The Role of Luck
We cannot avoid uncertainty. But with a bit of slow thinking, we may be able to embrace it, be humbled by it, and even enjoy it.
Consciously critique your standard view, whether you tend to look on the bright side or expect the worst.
The Problem With Just Using Words to Describe Uncertainty
Vague verbiage about uncertainty is easily misinterpreted. It’s easy to say that something “might” or “could” happen, but what do these words actually mean?
- For example, if someone in the UK intelligence service claims an event is “likely,” this has an official interpretation of between 55 percent and 75 percent chance.
As individuals, we might try to rank possible futures in terms of their likelihood, and then give them some rough magnitudes. With some imagination, we could think of all our possible future trajectories shooting out like spaghetti; and in around 20 percent of these, you will get the job.
