Russia’s military presence in Syria is shifting as satellite imagery reveals a buildup of military vehicles at key bases, sparking speculation about a potential partial withdrawal or exit from the region.
Russia‘s Military Presence in Syria: A Shift in Strategy?
The movement of military equipment and vehicles at Russian-controlled bases in western Syria has sparked speculation about the country’s future presence in the region. Satellite images reveal a build-up of military vehicles at the port at Tartous, established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and expanded by Russia in 2012, and the airbase at Hmeimim, which was operational since 2015.
A Partial Withdrawal?
Analysts suggest that these developments indicate preparations for a partial withdrawal or complete exit of Russian forces from Syria. The Institute for the Study of War notes that moving military vehicles to its bases may be a precautionary measure while Moscow negotiates with the new government in Damascus. This could be an attempt by Russia to maintain influence in the region without committing significant resources.
Key Strategic Bases
Russia’s two most significant bases in Syria have become crucial for its strategic interests, providing easier access to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Mediterranean Sea. However, the fall of Bashar al-Assad has raised questions about Russia’s future presence in Syria. Moscow is seeking to negotiate with the new regime, but the outcome remains uncertain.
Satellite Imagery Reveals Sustained Activity
BBC Verify has been monitoring Hmeimim air base activity using Planet Labs satellite imagery, which shows sustained activity involving sizeable military transport planes. Two large Antonov An-124 aircraft were seen at the base on Friday, which may be used to move assets out of Syria.
Dozens of Military Vehicles Parked at Airfield
Further imagery taken by Maxar Technologies on Sunday shows dozens of military vehicles parked at the airfield near a Russian-made Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane. This could indicate preparations for evacuations or storage of resources in the base.
Unusual Activity at Hmeimim Air Base
David Heathcote, intelligence manager at McKenzie Intelligence, described the activity at Hmeimim air base as “unusual,” suggesting that Russia is storing some resources in the base and preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria. Tayfun Ozberk, a former naval officer and defence analyst, agreed that the imagery indicated early stages of a Russian withdrawal from Syria.
Russian Warships Leave Tartous Port
Recent satellite images show more than 100 military vehicles arriving at the port at Tartous in recent days, while those vessels have not returned. This could indicate preparations for evacuation or storage of resources in the base.
