France’s new prime minister, Francois Bayrou, has inherited a challenging task: governing over a divided society and fragmented political landscape. With a cunning survival strategy, he aims to win the support of the center-left Socialist Party (PS) for his pension reform proposal.
The New French Prime Minister’s Cunning Survival Strategy
France’s new prime minister, Francois Bayrou, has inherited a difficult task: governing over a divided society and fragmented political landscape. His predecessor, Michel Barnier, was thrown out of office after a very short time due to the inability of his government to secure parliamentary approval for budget measures.
A Divided Parliament
The French Parliament is currently divided into three major blocs, none of which can claim an outright majority. This has made it challenging for any single party or coalition to pass legislation without facing opposition from other groups. The situation became even more complicated after the summer elections, when no single party won a clear majority.
Francois Bayrou’s Approach
Bayrou, who is head of the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem), has chosen a different approach than his predecessor. Instead of reaching out to the far-right opposition in Parliament, he has decided to try and win over the center-left Socialist Party (PS) by offering them a say in the pension reform process.
A New “Conclave” for Pension Reform
Bayrou has proposed that France’s respected auditing court conduct a financial analysis of the current position of French pension funds. This would be followed by three months of negotiations between trade unions and employer associations to come up with a new pension reform proposal. The PS had previously made stopping the pension reform one of their conditions for supporting the government in Parliament.
A Clever Strategy?
Nicolas Roussellier, a history professor at Paris university, Sciences Po, thinks that Bayrou’s suggestion of a “conclave” is clever. By allowing collective bargaining partners to negotiate behind closed doors, Bayrou is buying himself more time and potentially gaining the support of the PS.
Bayrou’s Chances
If Bayrou’s plan works, he might even be in the running to become France’s next president himself. Luc Rouban, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po, notes that few people believe Bayrou can do this, but his big advantage is that many underestimate him.
A New Era of French Politics?
The situation in France is complex and uncertain. If Bayrou’s government collapses again, things will be increasingly difficult for President Macron, especially if he has to find another new prime minister. Some French parties are already calling for him to resign and bring forward the presidential elections.
