A groundbreaking formula has been developed to predict the invasion potential of new species in ecosystems, offering a breakthrough in understanding the complex dynamics of ecological invasions.
Predicting Invasion Success: A New Formula for Ecosystems
In ecosystems, the introduction of a new species can be a game-changer. Will it establish itself and thrive, or will it fail to gain a foothold and die out? Physicists at MIT have developed a formula that can predict which outcome is more likely.
Understanding Invasion Dynamics
The researchers created their formula by analyzing hundreds of scenarios they modeled using populations of soil bacteria grown in their laboratory. They found that fluctuations within microbial communities were the key factor in determining invasion success. Communities with more fluctuations tended to be more diverse, but also more susceptible to invasion.
The Role of Nutrient Levels and Species Interactions
Nutrient levels played a crucial role in shaping the interactions between species. When nutrient levels were high, microbes displayed strong interactions, characterized by heightened competition for food and other resources. In some populations, these interactions led to stable states, while others formed communities with fluctuating species numbers.
The Importance of Prioritization
In ecosystems where species interactions are strong, the order in which species arrive can affect invasion success. When interactions are weak, this priority effect disappears, and the same equilibrium is reached regardless of the arrival order.
Implications for Probiotics and FMT Treatments
The researchers’ formula could be used to predict the success of probiotic treatments, such as beneficial bacteria consumed orally or fecal microbiota transplant (FMT) treatments for severe infections like C. difficile. In these cases, it’s desirable for healthy species to invade successfully.
Future Research Directions
The study was funded by the Schmidt Polymath Award and the Sloan Foundation. The researchers now plan to test their formula in larger-scale ecosystems, including forests, and explore its potential applications in predicting invasion success in natural communities.
