As the aviation industry continues to grow, Latin America is poised to become a major player in sustainable decarbonization efforts. With air travel projected to triple by 2050, researchers are turning to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a promising solution.
Toward Sustainable Decarbonization of Aviation in Latin America
The aviation industry is one of the fastest-growing contributors to greenhouse gas emissions globally. In Latin America, air travel is expected to more than triple by 2050, doubling today’s aviation-related emissions in the region. To mitigate this growth and meet the Paris Agreement‘s long-term goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C, researchers at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3) and the MIT Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment have been analyzing decarbonization options in Latin America.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel: A Promising Solution
Chief among these options is the development and deployment of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Currently produced from low- and zero-carbon sources, including municipal waste and non-food crops, SAF has the potential to perform just as well as petroleum-based jet fuel with a carbon footprint as low as 20% of traditional fuels. The researchers assessed SAF feedstock availability, costs, and deployment in six countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru.
Assessing SAF Costs and Emissions
Under an ambitious emissions mitigation scenario designed to cap global warming at 1.5°C, the researchers projected that aviation emissions would be reduced by about 60% in 2050 compared to a scenario with existing climate policies. To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, other measures such as improvements in operational and air traffic efficiencies, airplane fleet renewal, alternative forms of propulsion, and carbon offsets and removals would be required.
The researchers also projected that SAF costs within the six countries studied would range from $1.11 to $2.86 per liter, with increased fuel prices affecting operating costs of the aviation sector unless strategies to manage price increases are implemented. The total cumulative capital investments required to build new SAF-producing plants between 2025 and 2050 were estimated at $204 billion for the six countries.
Feedstock Sources and Recommendations
The researchers identified sugarcane- and corn-based ethanol-to-jet fuel, palm oil- and soybean-based hydro-processed esters and fatty acids as the most promising feedstock sources in the near term for SAF production in Latin America. They concluded that government policy and regulatory mechanisms will be needed to create sufficient conditions to attract SAF investments in the region and make SAF commercially viable.
The research team recommended a region-wide collaboration in designing SAF policies, with a unified decarbonization strategy among all countries in the region ensuring competitiveness, economies of scale, and achievement of long-term carbon emissions-reduction goals. “Regional feedstock availability and costs make Latin America a potential major player in SAF production,” says Angelo Gurgel, a principal research scientist at MIT CS3 and co-author of the study.
Financial Support and Future Directions
Financial support for this study was provided by LATAM Airlines and Airbus. The researchers emphasized that a combination of SAF deployment and economy-wide emissions mitigation policies will be necessary to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in aviation by 2050. As the world continues to look for solutions to mitigate climate change, sustainable decarbonization of aviation in Latin America is an essential step towards a cleaner, more sustainable future.
