As Germany’s federal election approaches, a neglected demographic holds the key to electoral outcomes: immigrant voters. With over 7 million eligible voters having an immigration background, parties are scrambling to win their support.
The Forgotten Voters: Immigrant Demographics Hold the Key to Germany’s Election
More than 7 million eligible voters in Germany have an immigration background. However, studies show they’re a neglected demographic, and many have lost their faith in the leading parties.
Political parties have less than a month to convince voters to support their platform in February’s federal election. One electoral group that might offer lagging parties an opportunity to make up lost ground is people with an immigration background. An estimated 7.1 million eligible voters, or one in eight German voters, have an immigrant background.
The Neglected Demographic
This demographic tends to vote less frequently than people who do not have an immigration background. Sociologist Friederike Römer said they’re also less committed to voting for a particular party than they used to be. “Among all the groups examined, the party with the highest potential is the Social Democratic Party,” she said.
Party Preferences
Römer’s study found that about 20% of voters who have a migrant background could see themselves voting for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). However, when asked which party they believe has the expertise to solve current problems, immigrant voters answer “none” more frequently than people without an immigration background.
The Left Party and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance tend to have higher approval ratings among this demographic. The Green Party does not fare as well. Concerns like inflation and the economy are high on their list of concerns for eligible voters with a history of immigration.
Xenophobic Rhetoric and Its Consequences
The far-right Alternative for Germany has gained support with migrant voters despite its xenophobic rhetoric. “They offer: ‘You’re not the problem. The new ones are the problem,'” said Römer. This strategy can be quite successful with immigrant voters, especially on social media.
German-Turkish Voters and Their Concerns
Yunus Ulusoy, a researcher at the Center for Studies on Turkey and Integration Research (ZfTI), lists groups that the AfD’s strategy might attract: people of Turkish origin, those critical of Islam, immigrants with a reasonably high assimilation rate, and an immigrant history reaching back decades or those who see new arrivals as competition.
However, these groups are fairly marginal. The center-left SPD has lost the support of many German-Turkish voters. Instead, more and more German-Turkish voters tend to skip voting altogether due to feelings of discrimination and ostracization.
“Late Repatriates” and Their Affinity for AfD
Another large subgroup among people with a migrant background are ethnic German resettlers from the former Soviet Union, commonly referred to as “late repatriates.” They widely share the feeling of not belonging. The AfD profited from this sentiment by adopting authoritarian promises and critical stances toward migration.
The Potential for Immigrant Voters
According to studies, migrants from the former Soviet Union rate the topic of immigration as particularly important. As skepticism toward the immigration policy of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel grew, support for her center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) began to fade.
While the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have begun courting these voters with pension policies, Panagiotidis believes the AfD and especially the BSW will profit from recent politics developments. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has the potential to be successful not only with post-Soviet immigrant voters but also with other immigrant demographics due to its moderate stance on immigration issues.
