US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg faced a barrage of questions at the Munich Security Conference, struggling to provide clear answers on President Donald Trump’s Ukraine policy. Despite this uncertainty, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed confidence in his country’s situation, stating that they have hope and are no longer alone.
The Munich Security Conference (MSC) event, ‘Peace Through Strength: A Plan for Ukraine,’ hosted by DW’s Conflict Zone, saw US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg facing a barrage of questions from the audience. Despite being the sole US representative at the MSC, Kellogg struggled to provide clear answers on President Donald Trump‘s Ukraine policy.
Ukraine's foreign policy is shaped by its strategic location between Europe and Russia.
The country has been a member of the Council of Europe since 1995 and has pursued closer ties with the European Union through the Association Agreement.
In 2014, following Russia's 'annexation' of Crimea, Ukraine strengthened its military cooperation with NATO and increased its defense spending.
Today, Ukraine seeks to balance its relationships with both Russia and the West, navigating complex diplomatic efforts to maintain sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Ukrainian Confidence Amid Uncertainty
Just days before the event, President Trump announced that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and rejected NATO membership for Ukraine. He also stated that Kyiv would have to cede territory to Russia if it wanted peace. This was followed by US Vice President JD Vance‘s comments questioning whether the US and Europe still shared the same values.
Despite these developments, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed confidence in his country’s situation, stating, ‘We have much more confidence, we are not alone.‘ He attributed this to past MSC gatherings where Ukraine was ignored, but now feels heard. Sybiha emphasized that his country has hope and is no longer alone.
Ukrainian confidence refers to the nation's self-assurance and faith in its institutions, economy, and government.
According to a 2020 survey, 64% of Ukrainians reported feeling confident about their country's future.
Factors contributing to this confidence include economic growth, EU integration efforts, and a strong sense of national identity.
However, challenges such as corruption, poverty, and ongoing conflict with Russia continue to erode confidence in certain areas.
Kellogg’s Unexpected Statement
During the event, General Kellogg surprised guests with an unexpected statement when he said, ‘America first? Yes! America alone? No!‘ This comment opened the door for Ukrainian and European hopes that the US would not abandon support for Kyiv after nearly three years of war. However, Kellogg was clear about Washington’s belief that Ukraine cannot kill its way to victory in the conflict.
Sanctions as a Powerful Tool
Kellogg expressed confidence that sanctions could be a powerful tool against Russia, which continues to produce most of its wealth through oil and gas sales. He described Russia as a ‘petrostate‘ and believed that sanctions would eventually leave Putin with no choice but to offer territorial concessions.
Sanctions are economic penalties imposed by one country on another to influence its policies, behavior, or actions.
They can include trade embargoes, asset freezes, and travel bans.
Sanctions aim to restrict a country's access to international markets, resources, and financial systems.
The United Nations, individual countries, or international organizations impose sanctions under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which allows for enforcement measures to maintain peace and security.
Polish Foreign Minister’s Views
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski continued on the topic of sanctions, describing how Russia‘s economy is beginning to buckle under the strain of years of war. He emphasized the need to convince President Putin that the price he would have to pay would be unacceptable and urged the EU to maintain its course on Ukraine.
European Defense Spending
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene stated that it takes a lot of money to defend oneself, especially when building arms manufacturing facilities. She noted that Lithuania had exceeded defense expenditures of at least 2% of GDP and was making another major uptick. Polish FM Sikorsky picked up on this dynamic, calling it unfair and suggesting more equitable burden sharing.
However, he also acknowledged that this would not be possible as long as Hungary continued to prevent such changes. Sikorsky then suggested to Kellogg that Trump could lean on Hungary to facilitate these changes.
Kellogg’s Response to Questions
When asked whether Europeans would have ‘a seat at the table‘ during ceasefire negotiations, Kellogg responded by saying: ‘define ‘at the table’…‘. He went on to say that the straight answer to the question would have to be ‘no,’ simply because there would be no table at all. However, he added that when it came time for negotiations, Ukraine would ‘naturally‘ have a place at the table.
As the event drew to a close, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called for clarity when defining terms like ‘deal’ and ‘peace.’ He emphasized that his country’s plan to meet those ends remain the same: ‘peace through strength.‘ Now, he said, is the time for Europe to show its strength.
