As the buildings sector lags behind in reducing climate-warming carbon emissions, a new study by MIT researchers identifies steps to lower emissions and costs through electrifying residential heating systems.
The buildings sector is falling behind in the race to reduce climate-warming carbon emissions. While carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the U.S. electric power sector dropped by 34 percent between 2005 and 2021, emissions in the building sector declined by only 18 percent in that same time period. In extremely cold locations, burning natural gas to heat houses can make up a substantial share of the emissions portfolio.
Electrifying Residential Heating: A Key Step Towards Decarbonization
A new study by MIT researchers identifies steps that can lower not only emissions but also costs across the combined electric power and natural gas industries that now supply heating fuels. The study, which was supported by the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) Future Energy Systems Center, used a two-part modeling framework to analyze the impacts of various levels of electrification of residential space heating on the joint power and natural gas systems.
Established in 1861, MIT is a private research university located in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
With over 4,500 faculty and staff members, it is one of the world's leading institutions for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education.
MIT offers more than 70 undergraduate and graduate programs across five schools, including the School of Engineering, School of Science, and Sloan School of Management.
The university is known for its innovative research, entrepreneurial spirit, and academic excellence.
A Two-Part Modeling Approach
The first model in the framework quantifies how various levels of electrification will change end-use demand for electricity and for natural gas, and the impacts of possible energy-saving measures that homeowners can take to help. The second part of the framework consists of a model that takes the demand results from the first model as inputs and ‘co-optimizes’ the overall electricity and natural gas system to minimize annual investment and operating costs while adhering to any constraints.
The New England Case Study: A Challenge for Electrification
As a case study, the researchers chose New England, a region where the weather is sometimes extremely cold and where burning natural gas to heat houses contributes significantly to overall emissions. The analysis showed that high electrification of residential heating could more than double the demand for electricity during peak periods and increase overall electricity demand by close to 60 percent.
Electricity demand refers to the total amount of electricity required by a region, country, or industry at any given time.
It is influenced by factors such as population growth, economic development, and technology adoption.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) , global electricity demand is projected to increase by 30% by 2030 due to rising industrialization and urbanization.
In the United States alone, peak electricity demand occurs during hot summer afternoons when air conditioning usage is at its highest.
Lessons Learned
Replacing existing natural gas-burning furnaces and boilers with heat pumps reduces overall energy consumption. Homeowners must install high-efficiency heat pumps plus take steps to prevent heat losses from their homes, and planners in the power and the natural gas sectors must work together as they make long-term infrastructure and operations decisions.
The Importance of Cooperation
Results from the MIT analysis indicate that such cooperation could significantly reduce both emissions and costs for residential heating — a change that would yield a much-needed step towards decarbonizing the buildings sector as a whole. The researchers conclude that there will be a continuing need for a ‘firm, dispatchable’ source of electricity; that is, a power-generating system that can be relied on to produce power any time it’s needed.
Policies Needed to Drive Residential Electrification
Current financial support for installation of heat pumps and steps to make homes more thermally efficient are a good start. But such incentives must be coupled with a new approach to planning energy infrastructure investments. Traditionally, electric power planning and natural gas planning are performed separately. However, to decarbonize residential heating, the two sectors should coordinate when planning future operations and infrastructure needs.
Conclusion
Reducing carbon emissions from residential heating requires a coordinated effort between policymakers, industry planners, and homeowners. The MIT study provides a pathway forward for reducing emissions and costs in this sector, but it also highlights the need for cooperation and coordination among stakeholders to achieve these goals.
