The recent surge in the polls of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is a testament to the significant impact of US President Donald Trump’s threats against Canada. As Trump’s tariffs and repeated calls to make Canada ‘the 51st state’ have fundamentally altered Canadian voters’ priorities, the Liberal Party has seen its support climb by over 10 points since January.
The Unexpected Rise of the Liberal Party in Canada’s Politics
The recent surge in the polls of Justin Trudeau‘s Liberal Party is a testament to the significant impact of US President Donald Trump‘s threats against Canada. The once-dominant Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had been steadily leading in the polls since mid-2023 with a double-digit advantage. However, this has changed dramatically in recent months.
Trump’s Threats Spark Shift in Canadian Politics
Trump‘s tariffs and repeated calls to make Canada ‘the 51st state‘ have fundamentally altered Canadian voters’ priorities. The rhetoric of the US President has pushed away other issues that were top of mind for Canadians before his inauguration, notes Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.
The prime minister’s approval rating has climbed by 12 points since December, indicating that Trudeau‘s leadership has been revitalized in the face of Trump‘s threats. The Liberal Party’s fortunes have also improved, with their support climbing to slightly over 30% – up 10 points from January.
The Leadership Contest and Its Significance
On Sunday, the Liberals will declare the results of the leadership contest to determine who takes over a party running a precarious minority government. The new leader will have two immediate decisions to make: how to respond to Trump‘s threats, and when to call a general election. The answer to the first dilemma will surely influence the second.
The leadership front-runner is Mark Carney, a former central banker for both Canada and England. He is touting his experience dealing with economic crises, including the 2008 financial crash and Brexit. Polls suggest that Canadians believe Carney is better equipped to deal with Trump on issues of tariffs and trade than Poilievre.
Mark Carney is a Canadian economist and banker who served as the Governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020.
He previously held positions at the Bank of Canada and the Financial Stability Board.
Carney played a crucial role in shaping global financial policies, particularly during the '2008 financial crisis.'
He also implemented quantitative easing measures to stimulate economic growth.
A strong advocate for climate change mitigation, Carney has emphasized the need for banks to adopt sustainable practices.
The Shift in Messaging
The Conservative Party has shifted its slogan to ‘Canada First’ in response to Trump‘s threats. However, this shift may not be enough to stem the tide of support for the Liberal Party. Liberals have attempted to highlight similarities between the Conservative leader and Republican president, but there are clear differences between the two politicians.
Pierre Poilievre is a Canadian politician who has been serving as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Carleton since 2004.
He previously held various cabinet positions, including Minister of Employment and Social Development and Minister of Finance.
Born on June 3, 1979, in Calgary, Alberta, 'Poilievre' earned his law degree from the University of Ottawa.
He has been a prominent figure in Canadian politics, known for his conservative views and outspoken style.
The Impact of Trump on Canadian Politics
One thing is certain: Trump will continue to influence and reshape Canadian politics just as he has in the United States. The anxiety reverberating among Canadians could yet be damaging for Carney and the Liberals if they fail to address concerns about his loyalty to the country.
The election campaign will take place at a moment when Trump‘s threats have inspired a fierce patriotism among Canadians. Many are boycotting American goods or cancelling trips to the US, demonstrating the significant impact of Trump‘s policies on Canadian politics.
