US allies in Eastern Europe are facing uncertainty amidst shifts in US foreign policy, particularly with regards to aid and relations with Russia. The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania must balance their commitment to Europe with their relationship with the United States.
The decision of former US President Donald Trump to halt aid to Ukraine and attempt to improve relations with Russia has significant implications for the Baltic states. These countries must now strike a balance between their commitment to Europe and their relationship with the United States.
For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the ongoing war in Ukraine is considered the first line of defense. Providing aid to Ukraine is essential because if Ukraine loses the war, Russia’s troops would be back on the borders of the Baltic states. Trump‘s decision to stop providing aid and intelligence to Ukraine and start to thaw relations with Russia has created anxiety among these three post-Soviet nations.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict began in 2014 with Russia's annexation of Crimea, a move widely condemned by the international community.
Since then, tensions have escalated, with ongoing fighting in eastern Ukraine between government forces and Russian-backed separatists.
According to the United Nations, over 13,000 people have been killed and millions displaced.
The conflict has also led to significant economic losses for Ukraine, with estimates suggesting a GDP loss of up to $50 billion.
When asked about the future of US troops stationed in the Baltic countries, Trump said he is committed to Poland, then hesitated before stating that ‘The Baltics… they got a lot of… it’s a tough neighborhood too, but we’re committed.’ He emphasized that Europeans must step up and provide more than they have in defense. ‘I want to see them equalize, because they are in for far less than we’re in,’ Trump said.
The Baltic states are at the top end of the NATO list in terms of defense spending ratio to GDP. In 2024, Estonia spent 3.43%, Latvia 3.15%, and Lithuania 2.85% of their GDP on defense. In light of recent developments in Ukraine and US-Russia relations, all the Baltic States have pledged to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP.
Tomas Jarmalavicius, the head of studies at the International Centre for Defense and Security in Tallinn, Estonia, explained that the Baltics are trying to balance two different lines of communication. ‘One line says that the US still remains committed and is a pivotal ally of Europe and the Baltics. The second one says we must increase our assistance to Ukraine for them to prevail and succeed, increase the pressure on Russia, and obviously also increase investments into European defense,’ Jarmalavicius said.
Jarmalavicius added that this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult as the two lines are becoming incompatible. ‘We will eventually face the dilemma whether to continue supporting Ukraine or seek to keep the US engaged. Because there will be a point we won’t be able to have both,’ he said.
The United States has maintained a strong relationship with the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania since the end of World War II.
The three countries share a common goal of promoting 'democracy, stability, and security' in the region.
In recent years, the US has increased its military presence in the Baltics through joint exercises and training programs.
The NATO summit in 2016 reaffirmed the alliance's commitment to collective defense, including Article 5, which guarantees mutual defense in case of an attack on any member state.
Bilateral trade agreements have also strengthened economic ties between the US and the Baltics.
The prime minister of Estonia, Kristen Michal, stated that his country will continue to work with the United States in as many ways as possible regarding Ukraine. ‘Fortunately, no NATO country has to choose between NATO options and other options, because in my opinion NATO is working,’ Michal said.
Michal believes that Trump‘s pressure on Europe may have a positive effect. ‘If you know that you are wealthy and in your region have the threat of Russia, you have to contribute to it [defense]. In this sense, the alarm bell should have rung a long time ago even without Trump, but now Trump may be helping to sound the alarm bell.’
Linas Kojala, Director of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center in Vilnius, Lithuania, explained that the Baltics are trying to be as positive towards the US as possible because the US is quite irreplaceable as a security partner. ‘Maybe in 3, 5, 7 or 10 years Europe could compensate for that but will need to spend a lot of money and a lot of time and political will in order to make it work,’ Kojala said.
The US-Baltic Security Partnership is a collaborative effort between the United States and Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) to enhance regional security and stability.
Established in 2018, the partnership focuses on counter-terrorism, cyber defense, and maritime security cooperation.
The US provides military training, equipment, and intelligence sharing to bolster the region's defenses against potential Russian aggression.
In return, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) offer access to their strategic locations and expertise in NATO operations.
Kojala added that if there was a choice, the reaction from the Baltics to Trump would be very different. ‘Some of the statements are very hard to stand, and they go against the direct interest of Ukraine,’ Kojala said. The future priorities for the Baltics are supporting Ukraine and strengthening their self-defense capabilities and cooperation with European allies like Germany, France, and the UK.
Although the Baltic states have felt that Europe has not done enough in defense over the last years, the €800 billion defense plan of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is a step in the right direction. ‘I remember half a year ago when I came to this position, I asked Ursula von der Leyen in a friendly way that we would like to do some things faster in defense, get some kind of change in the budgetary rules,’ concluded Kristen Michal.
- dw.com | Trump positioning leaves Baltics walking a tightrope
- msn.com | MSN
