Climate change may reduce the available space for satellites in low Earth orbit by anywhere from one-third to 82% by the end of the century, posing a threat to future satellite launches and operations.
A new study from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has found that climate change may reduce the available space for satellites in low Earth orbit by anywhere from one-third to 82% by the end of the century, depending on how much carbon pollution is spewed. The study’s lead author, Will Parker, explains that the atmosphere plays a crucial role in cleaning up debris and that as global warming causes the upper atmosphere to cool, it reduces the drag on space junk and satellites, making it more difficult for them to burn up in the atmosphere. This can result in a buildup of debris in orbit, posing a threat to future satellite launches and operations.
Climate change refers to the long-term warming of the planet, primarily caused by human activities that release greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, into the atmosphere.
According to NASA, the average global temperature has risen about 2°F since the late 1800s.
Climate change impacts include rising sea levels, more frequent natural disasters, and altered ecosystems.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that global warming must be limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to avoid catastrophic consequences.
The study’s findings are based on research into the effects of climate change on the upper atmosphere, where most satellites operate. The researchers used computer simulations to model how the changing atmospheric conditions would impact the density of space junk and its interaction with satellites.
Parker noted that ‘we rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris‘ and that there is no other way to remove debris from orbit. He also emphasized that ‘it’s trash. It’s garbage. And there are millions of pieces of it.‘
The study’s results have significant implications for the long-term sustainability of space exploration and satellite operations. As the number of satellites in orbit increases, so does the risk of collisions and debris accumulation, which can pose a threat to future launches and operations.
The research was published in the journal Nature Sustainability and highlights the need for policymakers and industry leaders to take action to mitigate the effects of climate change on space operations and ensure the long-term sustainability of satellite-based technologies.
