Asteroid 2024 YR4 narrowly missed Earth in 2032, but its orbital resonance with Jupiter sets the stage for a potential future impact. Will this small asteroid become a ‘villain’ after being thwarted?
Astronomers have long been aware of the potential dangers posed by asteroids like 2024 YR4, which has garnered significant attention due to its small but unsettling chance of hitting Earth seven years ago. However, a recent essay by Athabasca University astronomer ‘Martin Connors’ sheds light on the asteroid’s true nature and the likelihood of it returning for another pass.
The asteroid’s unique characteristic is its ‘orbital resonance’ with Jupiter, which means it moves at a multiple of the speed of the gas giant. Specifically, 2024 YR4 exhibits a 3:1 resonance with Jupiter, resulting in an orbital period that is one-third of the planet’s time to orbit the Sun. This phenomenon creates an opportunity for resonant asteroids like YR4 to have multiple attempts at crossing Earth’s orbit.
In an ‘Armageddon‘ context, the presence of resonant asteroids like 2024 YR4 poses a significant threat. As Connors notes, these asteroids will have multiple chances to hit their target due to their orbital resonance with Jupiter. This means that even if one asteroid misses its initial attempt, it can still return for another pass.
An asteroid impact can cause massive destruction, with effects ranging from local to global.
The Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013 injured over 1,000 people and damaged buildings.
Asteroids are made of rock or metal and can be up to several kilometers in diameter.
If an asteroid were to hit Earth, it could release energy equivalent to a nuclear explosion.
Scientists track near-Earth asteroids using telescopes and radar to predict potential impacts.
The discovery of the Kirkwood gaps in the 1970s revealed a new class of asteroids called ‘Alindas,’ which are characterized by their 3:1 resonance with Jupiter. These asteroids are named after the massive asteroid 887 Alinda, which would cause an extinction-level catastrophe if it struck Earth. However, not all Alindas are aligned to cross paths with our planet due to their tilted orbits.
Connors explains that a limiting factor in the likelihood of Alindas hitting Earth is their orbital tilt. If an asteroid’s orbit is highly tilted, it is less likely to be at a ‘height’ matching Earth’s orbit, thereby reducing its chances of impact. However, asteroids like 2024 YR4 and 887 Alinda are nearly aligned with Earth’s orbit, increasing the likelihood of collision.
While 2024 YR4 will miss its chance to take a city off the map in 2032, it will be nudged out of its Alinda orbit by passing too closely. This means that the asteroid’s orbital resonance with Jupiter and Earth will no longer align, reducing its chances of future impacts. However, as Connors notes, ‘humiliation is often the stuff that forges a villain,’ implying that 2024 YR4 may still return in some form, albeit less frequently.
The story of 2024 YR4 serves as a reminder of the complex and dynamic nature of our solar system. As astronomers continue to study and monitor these asteroids, it is essential to understand their orbital patterns and resonance with other celestial bodies. By doing so, we can better prepare for potential threats and mitigate the risks associated with these powerful objects in space.
