The decline of European refugees may be more complex than statistics suggest, with factors such as improved circumstances in source countries and backlogs in application processing contributing to the downward trend. As experts caution against over-interpreting the data, a closer look at the nuances behind asylum applications reveals a more intricate reality.
The Complexity of Asylum Applications in Europe
As the European Union grapples with a decline in asylum applications, experts warn that ‘the data may not provide a complete picture of displacement abroad.’ While Germany has seen a significant decrease in first-time asylum seeker applications, other countries and regions are experiencing their own unique challenges.
Understanding the Reasons Behind the Decline
Experts point to several factors contributing to the downward trend in asylum applications. One major reason is improved circumstances in places that have historically been sources of asylum seekers. For instance, Afghanistan has seen a substantial decline in applications due to increased difficulty in fleeing the country.
Afghanistan is a landlocked country located in South Asia, bordered by Pakistan to the east and south, Iran to the west, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north.
The country's terrain varies from mountains to deserts, with the Hindu Kush mountain range running through its center.
Afghanistan's climate ranges from subtropical to arid, with extreme temperatures in summer and winter.
Another factor is the impact of backlogs or restrictions on application processing and decision-making. These can mask reasons for sudden declines in data and make it challenging to understand the underlying trends.
The Role of Policy Changes
Local policy changes, such as a country declaring it will not process applications or imposing threats of deportation, border controls, or public hostility towards refugees, can discourage people from seeking asylum. Asylum seekers often face significant challenges, including navigating complex legal systems and investing considerable amounts of money to reach their destination countries.
A Closer Look at the Data
While official figures show a decline in first-time asylum applications, they do not give a complete insight into the complexities of this issue. A recent study from Southampton University identified ‘social networks’ as the strongest pull factor for those seeking asylum, highlighting the importance of familiar cultural communities when applying for asylum.
The Importance of Context
Ultimately, asylum data should be considered in historic terms and as part of longer-term trends. Experts caution against expecting a complete elimination of irregular migration or assuming that reducing asylum applications is an indication of how safe the world is.
