As India pushes to review and modify the Indus Waters Treaty, concerns arise about its ability to control the river’s flow, posing significant implications for Pakistan.
The Indus River flows through parts of India and Pakistan, supporting agriculture, hydropower, and drinking water for millions. However, a recent suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty has raised concerns about India’s ability to control the river’s flow.
The Indus River is one of the longest rivers in Asia, stretching approximately 3,180 kilometers from its source in the Tibetan Plateau to the Arabian Sea.
It flows through Pakistan and India, supporting agriculture, industry, and urban centers along its banks.
The river's basin is home to over 50 million people, with major cities like 'Karachi' and 'Lahore' relying heavily on its water resources.
The Indus River also supports a diverse range of flora and fauna, including several endangered species.
Disputes over water sharing have flared in the past, with ‘Pakistan objects to some of India’s hydropower and water infrastructure projects.‘ The treaty allocated the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – to India, while 80% of the three western ones – the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – were allocated to ‘Pakistan.‘
The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, signed in 1960.
The treaty allocates waters from the Indus River system to both countries, with India receiving 20% of the total water and Pakistan receiving 80%.
The treaty was brokered by the World Bank and has been in effect since 1961.
It established a Permanent Indus Commission to resolve disputes over water usage.
The treaty is considered a landmark agreement in international water law.
India has been pushing to review and modify the treaty, citing changing needs in light of factors like climate change. The suspension is among several steps India has taken against Pakistan, accusing it of backing cross-border terrorism. However, experts say it’s nearly impossible for India to hold back tens of billions of cubic meters of water from the western rivers during high-flow periods.
Climate change refers to significant long-term changes in the Earth's climate, primarily caused by human activities.
Rising greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and pollution contribute to global warming.
The effects of climate change include rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and altered weather patterns.
According to NASA, 2020 was one of the hottest years on record, with temperatures increasing by 1°C since the late 19th century.
Climate change affects ecosystems, human health, and economies worldwide.
India lacks both the massive storage infrastructure and extensive canals needed to divert such volumes. Its hydropower plants use the force of running water to spin turbines and generate electricity, without holding back large volumes of water. Indian experts say inadequate infrastructure has kept India from fully utilizing even its 20% share of the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus waters under the treaty.
Experts say India can now modify existing infrastructure or build new ones to hold back or divert more water without informing Pakistan. However, challenges like difficult terrain and protests within India itself have meant that construction of water infrastructure in the Indus basin has not moved fast enough.
Pakistan could feel the impact during the dry season if India begins controlling the water flow. The treaty requires India to share hydrological data with Pakistan – crucial for flood forecasting and planning for irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water. However, experts say that if India begins controlling the flow, it could cause significant downstream damage in Pakistan.
India is downstream of China in the Brahmaputra basin, and the Indus originates in Tibet. The recent tensions between India and Pakistan have raised concerns about the impact on regional stability and the environment.
