As Canadians prepare to head to the polls, prediction markets are predicting a Liberal win with Mark Carney leading with a 78% chance of becoming Canada’s next Prime Minister.
Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win as Canadians Head to the Polls
Political betting platforms show Mark Carney leading with a 78% chance of becoming Canada’s next Prime Minister.
Mark Carney is a Canadian economist and banker who served as the Governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020.
He was previously the Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013.
Carney has also held various positions in international finance, including serving as the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board.
He is known for his work on monetary policy and financial regulation, particularly during the '2008 global financial crisis.'
Critics argue that prediction markets like Polymarket may be manipulated, but there is no credible evidence supporting these claims. The Canadian election contract on Polymarket has the highest open interest, indicating strong market engagement.
The Market’s Verdict: Carney Ahead
Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms are paying attention to Canada as the nation heads to the polls. A contract asking bettors to predict who will be Canada’s next Prime Minister gives the Liberal Party‘s Mark Carney a 78% chance, and the Conservatives‘ Pierre Poilievre a 22% shot.
A Look at the Odds
Political bettors are slightly more skeptical of Carney’s chances of winning than the polls, but both are pointing in the same direction. A poll aggregator from public broadcaster CBC puts Carney’s chances at 89%. Myriad Markets, another prediction market, is giving Mark Carney similar odds to Polymarket.
The Critique: Manipulation Claims
A growing narrative in certain corners of the internet is that Polymarket is prone to manipulation and its numbers aren’t reliable. Critics say Pierre Poilievre‘s chances are being suppressed and do not reflect the political sentiment of the populace. However, manipulating prediction markets would be expensive, and there’s no credible evidence that this is happening even as Polymarket is banned in Canada’s largest province after a settlement with its securities regulator.
Pierre Poilievre is a Canadian politician and Member of Parliament for Carleton, Ontario.
He was first elected in 2004 and has held various positions, including Minister of Employment and Social Development.
Born on June 3, 1979, in Calgary, Alberta, 'he' earned his Bachelor's degree from McGill University.
He is known for his conservative views and has been a vocal critic of government policies.
Market Data Reveals Engagement
Data portal Polymarket Analytics shows that the Canadian election contract leads the platform in open interest, which is the total value of active, unsettled bets and a good measure of market engagement. Market data also shows that position holding is quite distributed, with the largest holder of the Pierre Poilievre—No side of the contracting holding 6% of all shares and the largest holder of the Mark Carney—Yes side holding 5%.
Bettors Weigh In
One bettor, who is betting big on Mark Carney with a six-figure position, said their motives are non-partisan, and said that the quality of Canadian polling makes them confident that the Liberals will win. ‘Poilievre needs a 7-point polling error to win and I think the probability of that is closer to 7% than his current market price of 23c,’ trader Tenadome told CoinDesk via an X DM. ‘The pool of Pierre Poilievre bettors seems to largely be very dumb money that believes in things like China is rigging the polls.’
