Romania is holding presidential and parliamentary elections, with the Social Democratic Party (PSD) expected to win the majority of votes. The nationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) and national liberal Save Romania Union (USR) are also expected to perform well, but their rise has been met with concerns over links to Russian secret services. The election campaign has highlighted divisions within the USR, particularly regarding progressive politics and family disputes.
Overview
Presidential Election
The first round of the presidential election will take place on Sunday, followed by a runoff on December 8 if none of the candidates gets an absolute majority. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is the favorite going into the first round.
Parliamentary Election
On December 1, Romanians will elect a new parliament. Recent polls suggest that the PSD will get 25-35% of the vote, while the nationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) and the national liberal Save Romania Union (USR) are expected to get 15-21%.
Nationalist Rise
The rise of nationalists in Romania is a significant development. George Simion of the AUR is currently second in the polls, while Elena Lasconi, chairwoman of the USR, is vying for second place. Both candidates have been accused of having links to the Russian secret service.
Progressive Politics and Family Dispute
Elena Lasconi’s political style and election campaign reflect the problems of the USR. She is trying to manage a balancing act between progressive politics and being in touch with ordinary people. A few years ago, she voted against gay marriage, provoking a very public family dispute.
Runoff Scenario
Should it come to a runoff on December 8, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu would likely prefer to stand against George Simion. Many Romanians might opt for what they see as the “lesser evil,” Marcel Ciolacu.
Romania’s Silence on International Matters
Unlike Poland or the Baltic states, Romania contributes very little to debates about how to handle Russia and support Ukraine. This is largely due to President Klaus Iohannis’ silence on international matters, which has become his trademark.
Military Threats
Romania faces military threats like no other country in the EU, with Russia’s Shahed drones regularly exploding over or on Romanian territory. In 2023, the government constructed air raid shelters for residents in the Danube Delta.
Key Statistics
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The PSD is expected to get 25-35% of the vote in the parliamentary election.
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The nationalist AUR and national liberal USR are both predicted to receive 15-21%.
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Romania’s populists and nationalists look set to achieve a record result.
