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Will China step up if Trump takes a step back on climate change?

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China is taking a leadership role in addressing climate change, with President Xi Jinping emphasizing the importance of solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries as key drivers of the country’s economy. This shift could mark a tectonic shift in the Conference of the Parties (COP) process, with China driving progress through discreet interventions and urging countries to increase their ambition and financial commitments. However, challenges remain, including addressing other issues and limitations in China’s approach.

Background

The United States’ stance on climate change has been a significant factor in international negotiations under the Conference of the Parties (COP) process. However, with the election of Donald Trump as President-elect in 2016, the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement and stepped back from its commitments to address climate change.

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China’s Changing Role

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has traditionally been classified as a developing country within the context of UN climate talks. This classification exempted China from contributing to the fund that rich countries agreed to pay to poorer ones for climate action. However, in recent years, there have been noticeable changes in China’s approach and language used during COP negotiations.

Observations

  • Language Shift: Chinese negotiators have started using language similar to developed countries, such as describing their payments as “provided and mobilised,” which is the term used by rich countries for their contributions.

  • Cooperative Style: Experts have noted a shift in China’s negotiating style at COP talks this year, described as “unusually cooperative” by some observers.

Implications

The implications of these changes are significant:

  • Leadership Role: Some experts believe that China is stepping forward as a leader in climate change talks, potentially filling the void left by the US under President-elect Trump.

  • Shift in COP Process: This could mark a tectonic shift in the COP process, with China likely to drive progress through discreet interventions and urging countries to increase their ambition and financial commitments.

A Leadership Role for China

The Chinese government is taking a leadership role in addressing climate change, with President Xi Jinping emphasizing the importance of solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries as key drivers of the country’s economy. China has paid developing countries more than $24 billion for climate action since 2016, and its negotiating style is different from previous years.

Challenges

However, there are also challenges associated with this shift:

  • Addressing Other Issues: It’s unclear whether China will address other challenges, such as instances where countries use COP talks as a stage to champion their own interests.

  • China’s Approach Limitations: Experts note that China’s approach may not be entirely helpful on all challenges.

The Future of Climate Talks

The future of climate talks will likely be determined by the new economics of energy, rather than politics, according to some observers. With China stepping up its efforts and encouraging other countries to cut emissions using Chinese technologies and equipment, the dynamics of climate negotiations may be about to change dramatically.

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