The annual UN climate summit, COP29, has begun in Baku, Azerbaijan, focusing on securing a commitment of $1 trillion per year for climate finance. However, several global leaders are absent from the summit, including Joe Biden and Ursula von der Leyen, amidst uncertainty about the US’s commitment to climate action due to Donald Trump’s recent victory.
COP29 Meeting: Key Players and Uncertainty Ahead
The annual UN climate summit, COP29, has kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan, with a focus on climate finance.
Background
The meeting aims to secure a commitment of $1 trillion per year for climate finance.
Agenda
Countries will attempt to agree on a new, higher annual climate finance target, with some arguing the figure should run into trillions. They also need to decide what kind of finance to include and how to allocate funds between mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage.
Absent Leaders
Several global leaders are absent from the summit, including:
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Joe Biden (US president)
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Ursula von der Leyen (European Commission president)
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German chancellor Olaf Scholz
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French president Emmanuel Macron
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Chinese president Xi Jinping
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Russian president Vladimir Putin
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Brazilian president Lula
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Japanese prime minister
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Australian prime minister
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Mexican president
Impact of US Election
The recent victory of Donald Trump has created uncertainty about the US’s commitment to climate action. Trump has signaled his desire to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and exit the UN convention overseeing COPs.
Quotes
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“The catalyst for achieving the climate finance goal is the relationship between Europe and China.” – Chiara Martinelli, president of Climate Action Network Europe
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“The question is whether the EU and China, along with developing countries, will be able to organize over the next four years to find financing and reduce emissions apart from the US.” – Luca Bergamaschi, director of Ecco
Key Players
The European Union and China are expected to play a crucial role in achieving climate finance goals. The private sector is also likely to continue supporting the transition, but with less enthusiasm than before.
Uncertainty Ahead
The knock-on effects of Trump’s election could be greater this time than in 2016, making it challenging to predict the outcome of COP29.
What Impact Will the US Election Have?
The elephant in the room is Donald Trump’s recent victory. Back in 2016, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, which set the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius; Joe Biden then rejoined the climate compact as soon as he arrived in the White House.
Who has to take responsibility for what?
The so-called global south is pressing for money to tread a path from developed countries to those left behind, who have not played a historical role in the climate crisis. The industrialized world, on the other hand, demands commitments on decarbonization from developing nations, partly as a matter of safeguarding industrial and technological competitiveness.
Complicating the matter is the position of China.
China accounts for one-third of global emissions, more than any other country. Despite this, it is still considered by the UN to be on the road to development, meaning it is not formally bound to the same economic commitments as the world’s historical big polluters. However, Beijing might choose to make bold commitments to increase its international prestige.
The relationship between Europe and China will be vital for achieving the climate finance goal.
Chiara Martinelli, president of Climate Action Network Europe, a network of more than 180 NGOs, is more optimistic. “The catalyst for achieving the climate finance goal is the relationship between Europe and China. The truth is that both with Harris, had she won, and with Trump, the European Union could not expect the United States to lead the change,” she says.
Luca Bergamaschi, director of Ecco, an Italian climate think tank, agrees that the actions of the EU and China will be vital.
Luca Bergamaschi, director of Ecco, an Italian climate think tank, agrees that the actions of the EU and China will be vital. “The question is whether the EU and China, along with developing countries, will be able to organize over the next four years to find financing and reduce emissions apart from the US,” he says.
