Namibians Head to Polls, Frustrated by Unemployment

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Election Predictions

Swapo, despite being a party in decline, is expected to remain a dominant party. However, if young people show up at the polls, there may be a presidential election runoff, as they are disillusioned with Swapo and likely to vote for change.

Key Players

• Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah: Incumbent vice-president and former foreign minister running for president.

• Panduleni Itula: Independent candidate who came second in the 2019 elections and is running again.

• Hage Geingob: Former president who won a second term in 2019 but died in February.

Quotes

• “What Itula represents is change, hope for change.” – Rakkel Andreas, political analyst

• “It’s very clear that this is going to be the closest election since independence.” – Graham Hopwood, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy Research

Background on the Election

The Swapo party, which has been in power since Namibia gained independence from South Africa in 1990, could lose its majority for the first time. This is due to high unemployment rates and a decline in support among younger generations who have no memory of Swapo’s fight against apartheid.

Key Players and Parties

• Swapo: The longtime ruling party that has been in power since Namibia gained independence from South Africa in 1990.

• Independent Patriots for Change (IPC): A new party formed by Panduleni Itula, a former Swapo member who returned to Namibia in 2013 after studying and working as a dentist in the UK for more than three decades. Itula is running against Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, the country’s vice-president.

Unemployment Rates

High unemployment rates have eroded support for Swapo. In 2023, 19.4% of Namibians were out of work, rising to 40% among those aged 18-35.

Predictions and Analysis

Analysts predict a close election with many uncertainties. Graham Hopwood notes that “it’s very clear that this is going to be the closest election since independence.” He believes Swapo will still be a dominant party but unsure how dominant it will be.

Importance of Youth Voter Turnout

Young people, aged under 35, comprise 42% of the electorate. If they turn out in large numbers, they could counter Swapo’s support base and lead to a runoff in the presidential election.

Quotes from Analysts

• “She comes across as a stateswoman, a seasoned diplomat, very knowledgeable in terms of public policy, and also … not tainted by corruption.” – Rakkel Andreas

• “Despite the fact that Swapo has been a party in decline, if the 2019 elections are anything to go by, I think they will still remain a dominant party… But if young people [under 35], who comprise 42% of the electorate, show up at the polls, I think there will be a [presidential election] runoff, because they will not vote for Swapo. They are disillusioned.” – Rui Tyitende