A growing crisis of aridity threatens ecosystems, human health, economies, and water resources globally. The UN COP16 Summit may hold the key to mitigating this devastating impact.
The report “The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections” highlights the growing crisis of aridity, which is expected to have devastating impacts on ecosystems, human health, economies, and water resources. Here are some key findings:
Regional Aridity Trends
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West Africa, Western Australia, and the Iberian Peninsula are among the most affected regions by aridity.
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In contrast, southern Mexico and parts of the Amazon rainforest experience high humidity and rainfall.
Economic Impacts
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The African GDP declined by 16% between 1990-2015 due to aridity.
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Projected GDP losses in Africa and Asia are expected to be 6.7% and 20%, respectively, by 2079 under a moderate emissions scenario.
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Global crop yields are projected to decline by 20 million tons of maize, 21 million tons of wheat, and 19 million tons of rice by 2040 due to expanding aridity.
Water Scarcity
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Only 10% of rainfall in drylands is available for plant growth, while the rest evaporates back into the atmosphere.
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The global land area expected to store less water is projected to increase by 67% by 2100 under moderate emissions scenarios.
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The Middle East and North Africa have seen a decline of 75% in water availability since the 1950s.
Health Impacts
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Increased severe child stunting in sub-Saharan Africa is projected due to combined effects of aridity and climate warming.
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Estimated rise in mortality risks during sand and dust storms in China is up to 12.5%.
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Fine and coarse atmospheric dust levels are expected to increase by 57% and 38%, respectively, in the southwestern U.S. by 2100 under worst-case climate scenarios.
Wildfires and Forests
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Expected increase in wildfire-burned areas in California by 74% by 2100 under high emission scenarios.
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Additional annual high fire danger days in Greece are projected to be 40 more than late 20th-century levels by 2100.
Overall, the report emphasizes that aridity is a persistent and long-term climatic condition that poses an existential threat to ecosystems, human health, economies, and water resources.
