A white Christmas in the UK seems increasingly likely, but will it be a widespread phenomenon or just a snowflake or two? We delve into the latest forecast models and climatological trends to predict the chances of a festive flurry.
What are the Chances of a White Christmas?
As we edge closer to the big day itself, you might be dreaming of a white Christmas, but what are the chances of actually seeing one in the UK this year? Longer-range weather forecast models are starting to agree on likely themes for the festive forecast, and it’s beginning to look a lot like â¦it is going to be unsettled for most of the country.
Where Can We Expect Snow?
At this stage, parts of Scotland have the highest chance of a white Christmas, but it is still too early to know for sure. The weather is expected to remain rather changeable with wet and fairly windy, if not stormy, conditions. However, colder spells are likely, as the winds turn more north-westerly, which has the potential to bring some sleet or snow, especially over the hills in Scotland.
Climates and White Christmas
Climatologically speaking, the chances of a white Christmas vary hugely across the country, with generally a higher likelihood the further north and the higher above sea level you go. The places that see the most “white Christmas Days” are northern and eastern Scotland, northern England, north Wales, and the north-west Midlands.
What is a White Christmas?
The official Met Office definition of a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK. This happens on more than half of Christmas Days, so it is more likely than not that we will get a white Christmas somewhere. However, the idyllic “Christmas card scene” of more widespread lying snow is much rarer.
Accurate Snow Forecasts
Forecasting snow accurately is notoriously difficult in the UK. Weather forecasters take into consideration lots of variables such as where the air is expected to be coming from â for example, an Arctic air mass is most likely to bring us snow â as well as the intensity of any rainfall approaching that may turn to snow if temperatures are low enough. Weather supercomputers use several models to generate forecast data using slightly different variables.
The Role of Climate Change
When will we know with more certainty if it is going to snow this Christmas? The relationship between climate change and white Christmases in the UK is complex. A Helsinki University study looked at the probability of lying snow on Christmas Eve across Europe, finding that some places have actually seen an increase in the likelihood of festive snowfall.
Staying Informed
You will need to keep an eye on our forecasts on BBC TV, radio, website, and app for the latest updates.
