The crypto market remains directionless ahead of the US jobs report, with bitcoin struggling to break above $100,000 despite Eric Trump’s endorsement. Analysts are cautiously optimistic that a breakout may occur once the data is out.
Crypto Daybook Americas: It’s All About the Jobs as Bitcoin Shrugs Off Eric Trump Endorsement
Your day-ahead look for Feb. 7, 2025
By Omkar Godbole and Shaurya Malwa
Edited by Sheldon Reback
Updated Feb 7, 2025, 12:46 p.m. UTC
Published Feb 7, 2025, 12:00 p.m. UTC
Market Momentum
The crypto market remains directionless, with bitcoin (BTC) languishing below $100,000 before the U.S. jobs report. It’s surprising prices have not yet crossed that threshold, especially after President Donald Trump’s son, Eric, encouraged the family-linked WLFI to invest in BTC in a post on X on Thursday.
Typically, such endorsements during a bull run lead to substantial gains. That that hasn’t materialized is a sign markets are no longer buoyed by talk alone and Trump needs to walk the walk. Early this week, the administration said it’s evaluating the feasibility of a strategic BTC reserve.
Another possibility is that caution ahead of nonfarm payrolls is capping the upside. If that’s the case, a breakout may occur once the data is out, especially if the figure prints weaker than estimated, potentially driving Treasury yields and the dollar index lower.
Market Insights
Crypto newsletter service LondonCryptoClub recommends keeping an eye on revisions in the previous figures. ‘Bloomberg Intelligence expecting some large downside revisions suggesting the Labour market not as strong in 2024 as first appeared We still think the market (and the Fed themselves) are massively under pricing the rate cuts that will need to come,‘ the newsletter service’s founders said on X.
At press time, Volmex’s one-day bitcoin implied volatility index stood at an annualized 51%, suggesting a daily price swing of 2.6%, or about $2,600. In other words, the figure could move the spot price by $2,600 in either direction. Notably, some traders are buying put options, bracing for potential downside volatility should the data come in strong.
Regulatory Updates
In other news, the ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve‘ bill passed the House in the state of Utah and will now move to the Senate. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart reported that the U.S. SEC has acknowledged Grayscale’s Solana 19b-4 filing. And VanEck predicted a $500 price for SOL, more than double its current value of around $180.
A strategic Bitcoin reserve is a portion of an organization's assets held in the form of cryptocurrency to manage risk, stabilize value, and take advantage of market opportunities.
Central banks and financial institutions are increasingly adopting this strategy to diversify their portfolios and mitigate volatility.
According to a 2020 survey, 27% of central banks consider crypto reserves as part of their monetary policy toolkit.
The strategic reserve is typically held for a short-term period, allowing the institution to respond quickly to market fluctuations.
Additionally, FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett shared that U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill and Digital Assets Subcommittee Chairman Bryan Steil have released a stablecoin regulation discussion draft, which proposes a two-year ban on stablecoins backed solely by self-issued digital assets and mandates a Treasury study on their risks.
What to Watch
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Feb. 13: Start of Kraken’s gradual delisting of the USDT, PYUSD, EURT, TUSD, UST stablecoins for EEA clients.
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Feb. 18, 10:00 a.m.: FTX Digital Markets, the Bahamas-based subsidiary of FTX, will start reimbursing creditors.
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Feb. 7, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases January’s Employment Situation report.
An employment situation report is a periodic publication that provides an overview of the labor market in a country.
It typically includes data on unemployment rates, job growth, and other indicators of economic activity.
The reports are usually released by government agencies or statistical organizations.
They provide valuable information for policymakers, businesses, and individuals to make informed decisions about the economy and employment opportunities.
Token Events
OsmosisDAO is discussing a change to the use of taker fees collected in OSMO to burn 50% of collected fees. Threshold DAO is discussing the creation of a bond program to address its stablecoin’s liquidity challenges. Sky DAO is voting on an executive proposal to lower savings rates, sweep over 400K DAI in PauseProxy into the Surplus Buffer and allocate 3 million DAI for integration boost funding, among other things.
Yearn DAO is discussing the elimination of the protocol’s fee structure.
Threshold DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) that utilizes a unique governance system.
It employs a voting mechanism based on a weighted score, where each participant's influence is determined by their invested capital.
This approach aims to provide more equitable decision-making power and prevent potential bottlenecks in the voting process.
Threshold DAO has been used for various applications, including decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and non-fungible token (NFT) marketplaces.
